Inflation Fatigue Will Be No Match For Consumers’ 2024 Holiday Spending, Signifyd’s Ecommerce Projections Show

Consumers continue to trade up for cheaper products, but they’re poised to push online holiday spending up 7% compared to last year

SAN JOSE, Calif., September 16, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Online shoppers will continue to defy vibecession this coming holiday season by spending more than last year during the crucial Cyber ​​Five period and throughout the fourth quarter, according to the Holiday Ecommerce Pulse projection released today by commerce protection provider Signifyd.

Ecommerce spending will increase 8% compared to last year during 2024’s Cyber ​​Five — the five days of shopping frenzy beginning with Thanksgiving. The forecast is based on an analysis derived from historical holiday spending and recent trends. For the full quarter, sales were up 7% over last year’s October to December spending.

Key findings from the latest Ecommerce Pulse analytics

• Online holiday shoppers will drive October through December spending by 7% over the same period in 2023. Cyber ​​Five ecommerce sales will increase by 8%.

• The back-to-school season finished strong with online sales up 11% in August 2023.

• Consumers are constantly looking for value, trading up from preferred products to replace items at lower prices. Online order values ​​were down 3% in August compared to last year.

The holiday projection is good news for online retailers, but it comes alongside August Ecommerce Pulse data from Signifyd that shows consumers continue to shop around by looking for bargains and choosing to bypass the tops -of-the-line item for more practical alternatives.

“You could say we had a strong month in terms of demand,” said Signifyd Senior Data Analyst Phelim Killough, who conducted Signifyd’s latest shopping research. “Demand was high, but when shoppers got to the checkout, they showed restraint.”

Signs of vibecession — a catchy phrase that refers to consumer malaise despite an improving economy — permeate Signifyd’s monthly Ecommerce Pulse report. While overall ecommerce spending for the month was 11% higher than last August and the number of orders placed increased by 15%, the value of each order decreased by 3%.

That’s a sign that consumers are still spending — but carefully, being selective about what they drop into their digital carts.

“We’ve seen the same trend for months now,” Killough said. “This is a sign that retailers must be ready to appeal to consumers with discounts in the upcoming holiday season, or else find ways to differentiate their offerings from what the competitor, possibly at a lower price.”

The story continues

Killough’s holiday analysis predicts the fashion and apparel category, the electronics category and the grocery category will all have a fourth quarter to celebrate. Spending in the luxury category and in the outdoor and leisure category will have solid quarters, with wine sales and home sales underperforming during the 2023 holiday season.

The projection shows spending building at a crescendo in December in significant part due to a calendar oddity that splits the Cyber ​​Five shopping spree between November and December.

October will see a 5% increase in ecommerce spending over the past one year. November online sales will fall 2% below last year and December will see an 18% increase in 2023, in part because 40% of spending on Cyber ​​Five, including Cyber ​​Monday , will take place in December. The dramatic increase caused by the change of two of the five major shopping days from November to December underscores the tremendous importance to online retailers of the long Thanksgiving weekend.

The holiday projections were released as part of Signifyd’s monthly Ecommerce Pulse report for August, the tail end of the back-to-school shopping season. Sales in traditional back-to-school categories were again mixed in August, as they were in July.

Home furnishings are back, up 7% over the past year, perhaps reflecting the late-season need to decorate college dorm rooms and apartments. Apparel remained strong as in July, up 18% over the past year, and electronics remained nearly flat, down 1% from a year ago.

In other categories, grocery continued its strong showing in August of 34%, possibly reflecting grocers’ continued improvement in attracting online shoppers. General merchandise, leisure and outdoor, and luxury goods are grouped with household goods, all up over a year ago between 7% and 9%.

Both the beauty and cosmetics and auto parts categories lost in August, falling 4% and 5% from their August 2023 sales.

Procedure

Signifyd’s Ecommerce Pulse data is derived from transactions on Signifyd’s Commerce Network by thousands of ecommerce retailers and brands. Commerce Network intelligence also powers Signifyd’s Commerce Protection Platform, which uses AI-driven machine learning models and data from billions of transactions to identify and block fraudulent activity while increasing the number of good order approvals . Signifyd has found more than 600 million unique consumer wallets¹ globally, that means 98% of the time when a consumer lands on a Signifyd-protected site, Signifyd’s machine-learning models immediately recognize the consumer.

About Signifyd

Signifyd provides an end-to-end Commerce Protection Platform that leverages its Commerce Network to maximize conversion, automate the customer experience and eliminate consumer fraud and abuse risk for retailers. Signifyd, which is the leading provider of payment security and fraud prevention for Digital Commerce 360 ​​Top 1000 Retailers, is headquartered in San Jose, CA, with locations in Denver, New York, Mexico City, São Paulo , Belfast and London.

¹ A digital wallet is a unique combination of signals present in an online transaction.

See the source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240916967561/en/

Contacts

Mike Cassidy
Signified leader of PR and storytelling
mike.cassidy@signifyd.com